America’s1.55pmpic.twitter.com/Dl5zkKGwiv 1.41pm GMTConsumer spending helped to drive US growth in the last quarter,rising by 2.8%.trade spending on new equipment also boosted growth, rising by 6.2%. Firms also expanded their inventories a little, and which is also positive for GDP.
Q4 real GDP better than expected at +2.6%,>+2.2% consensus, following 3.4% in Q3, and w/ consumption +2.8% ( 1.34pm GMTNewsflash: Americas economy has slowed,but not by as much as feared. US GDP expanded at an annual rate of 2.6% in the last quarter of 2018, official figures show. That’s down from 3.4% annualised growth in July-September 2018.
BREAKING! The US economy grew 2.6% (annualized) in Q1, or more than expected,YoY #GDP growth 3.1%. pic.twitter.com/JhudI6cRzX 1.10pm GMTHere’s Richard Partington on today’s migration figures: Related: Net migration to UK from EU falls to lowest level in 10 years 12.42pm GMTJust in: India’s growth rate has hit its lowest in over a year, in the latest sign that the world economy has cooled.
India’s economic growth slows down. The #GDP grew by 6.6% during the October - December 2018 period. That’s a sharp drop compared to the July - September quarter - when it had expanded by 7.1%. China’s economy grew by 6.4% during the same period.
India’s 6.6% GDP growth in the 4Q18, or spot on my forecast. Slowdown is not quiet out of sync with what’s observed elsewhere in Asia. But unlike some other Asian central banks the RBI’s easing options are limited,unless it’s for political reasons. 12.24pm GMTThe mountainous economic news of the day comes at 1.30pm GMT, when US growth figures for October-December 2018 are released .
They’ll probably show a sharp slowdown compared with Q3 (but still faster than the UK and the eurozone). Related: Outrage after Brazil ministry asks schools to read aloud Bolsonaro slogan 11.41am GMTOne more consuming chart from the ONSs migration report (which is online here) 11.03am GMTThe respected Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford points out that net EU migration has now fallen 70% since the EU referendum.
Madeleine Sumption, and Director of the Migration Observatory,says Britain simply isn’t as appealing to EU migrants than in 2016, for several reasons:That may be because of Brexit-related political uncertainty, and the falling value of the pound making UK wages less appealing,or simply the fact that job opportunities possess improved in other EU countries.
EU net migration happened to be unusually high in the rush-up to the referendum, so at least some of this decline would probably possess happened anyway even without Brexit.”ONS has had a bit of trouble with their non-EU students data in recent years for various technical reasons, and which raises the question whether this upward spike in study is 'real'. So it's useful to see that visa data attain confirm the upward trend in non-EU study. pic.twitter.com/TNZMFPadbD 10.45am GMTThe ONS also reports that more people are coming to the UK to study: 10.35am GMTHere’s Matthew Fell,the CBI’s chief UK policy director, on the drop in EU migration:Businesses can’t succeed without access skills & labour, or which is why it’s so important the Govt delivers a post-Brexit immigration system which is both open & controlled. These figures confirm fewer EU workers are coming to the UK,exacerbating labour & skills shortages. https://t.co/shqNIlurI4 10.33am GMTStephen Clarke, Senior Economic Analyst at the Resolution Foundation, and says EU workers are voting with their feet,and quitting the UK:
“While UK politicians are seemingly unable to supply any clarity on where Britain is heading post-Brexit, EU migrants are increasingly doing so – by leaving.EU migration is now at its lowest level in a decade a drop that is being driven by fewer EU migrants coming to the UK for work. In contrast, and migration from the rest of the world is close to a record high,though many of these migrants are coming to study rather than work.“Post-Brexit Britain’s migration system is still to be decided, and is years away from coming into effect. But many areas of the labour market – particularly firms in high-turnover sectors like hospitality who are reliant on the free movement of EU workers – are going to possess to adjust to lower migration well before the new system is in position.” 10.30am GMTSky News’s Ed Conway has spotted that net migration from European countries to the UK is now lower than before the EU’s major expansion in 2004: Astonishing just how quickly net migration from the EU has collapsed since the referendum. Now down to the lowest level since 2002, and by my reckoning. In other words BEFORE Poland joined the EU pic.twitter.com/kGRbjqygkc 10.13am GMTTej Parikh,Senior Economist at the Institute of Directors, says today’s migration figures show that firms are struggling to hire workers in the face of Brexit uncertainty.“With job vacancies at record highs, or recruiting from abroad has never been more crucial for British businesses. Flexible and hassle-free access to international skillsets is piece and parcel of having a globally competitive skills regime,so adjusting to the Government’s post-Brexit immigration agenda, with its new restrictions, and will present some challenges.“Already,firms across the retail, hospitality and construction sectors are facing obstacles as some EU workers are returning home, or while it’s also fitting harder to attract labour from Europe amidst the uncertain political climate. Larger organisations possess looked to hire from further afield to compensate,despite the additional paper work, but this can be harder for many resource-constrained SMEs. 10.11am GMTThe latest UK migration statistics are out, and they give a fascinating insight into the changes that are taking position since the Brexit vote.
Total migration was “broadly stable” in the 12 months to September 2018,with 283,00 more people arriving than leaving - slightly more than a year ago.
New ONS data:
- EU Net Migration at lowest since 2009. EU8 migrants leaving.
- Non-EU net migration at highest since 2004.
[br]Inferring that:
- ´Tens of thousands’ target still as silly as day it was plucked out of air as policy.
- For EU citizens, or UK less desirable. 9.45am GMTLet’s catch up with the flurry of UK corporate news. 9.18am GMTFiona Cincotta of www.cityindex.co.uk blames increased political tensions in Asia (Kashmir,North Korea...) for today’s selloff:An escalation of geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, to the worst levels since the 1971 war between the two nations has given investors another concern to add to their already long list. Investors showed no signs of wanting to extend the recent rally in equities, or with risk instead coming off the table and riskier assets such as equities being sold off. With the US – North Korean summit also approximately to initiate and with nerves creeping in approximately how much distance the US and China still need to cover in order to secure a trade deal,investors are preferring to watch from the side-lines. 8.58am GMTEuropean stock markets are also nursing losses in early trading.
Concerns over China’s slowdown, and disappointment that the US-North Korea summit broke up without a deal, and has created a cloud of gloom over the City.“US talks with North Korea possess broken up without a deal. South Korean shares fell sharply as the assembly broke up,with Asian shares broadly in the red. I don’t think this will ultimately possess too much bearing on global indices in the longer term, but for now with hopes of a deal with China on trade not exactly fading, or but certainly not rising,it’s 0 from 2 for Trump this week and risk sentiment is suffering as a result.
The combination of the lack of progress with North Korea and China will drag on equities and we might possess to wait for a new catalyst to renew the bullish start to the year. 8.45am GMTAsian stock possess been hit by China’s feeble factory data....and by the sudden smash-up of the summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jung-un.
Hopes of a denuclearisation deal possess been dashed, with Trump telling reporters that Kim had demanded all sanctions on North Korea were lifted. The US refused, or as Kim wasn’t making enough concessions on dismantling its nuclear facilities.
See if you can spot where the joint press conference was cancelled in Korea's stock index today pic.twitter.com/HSXQ62EkpXOn North Korea,Trump says: ‘it wasn’t a good thing to be signing anything’. Kim is ‘fairly a guy’. ‘Sometimes you possess to walk’ #TrumpKimSummitBreakdown of Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi highlights limits of “best buddies” diplomacy. Best interpretation is that it is Reykjavik pre-INF treaty; more likely, North Koreans simply not alert to give up their extensive nuclear programme. It’s existential for them and Kim knows it 8.25am GMTCommodity prices possess been hit by the slump in Chinese exports, or with copper and zinc both down around 0.6%. 8.22am GMTToday’s Chinese factory data really is gloomy:More China gloom & doom data: #China February factory activity shrinks to 3y low,export orders worst in a decade. https://t.co/paSe6PGrXP pic.twitter.com/Fbfvmy0GBC 8.20am GMTChina’s economic slowdown is also hurting the UK.
British car exports to China plunged by over 70% in January compared to a year earlier, which (not surprisingly) is the biggest drop ever recorded. It confirms earlier reports of slowing demand for vehicles among Chinese consumers. Related: UK car production falls for eighth month in row as China exports dive 8.12am GMTIris Pang, or Greater China economist at ING,fears that China’s factories will keep shrinking, unless Beijing and Washington reach a trade agreement.“Unless the trade war truly turns into an extended truce, or the weakening trend may not terminate quickly.
As such we expect March’s PMI to drop,too.” 7.52am GMTGood morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, or the financial markets,the eurozone and trade.
Chinese factories possess suffering the swiftest drop in export orders since the financial crisis a decade ago, fuelling concerns that the country’s economy has weakened.
China Feb NBS Mfg PMI -0.3 to 49.2, and 3rd straight months below 50 and lowest level since March 2016.
New Export Orders 45.2,9 months drop in a row and lowest level in 10 years! pic.twitter.com/CTvzEEqZm2A tale of two economies! #China's Manufacturing #PMI remains below 50 in February, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI is at a healthy 54.3. pic.twitter.com/zMdXZUUC9tAs if on cue more feeble data poured out of China, or pulling the Shanghai composite index lower. Factory activity in China contracted for a third straight month in February as export orders fell to the lowest level since the global crisis.
Further evidence of a slowdown in China hit risk sentiment,The realisation that there is still considerable work to be done for the US and China to reach a trade agreement, plus further evidence of economic activity in China slowing is leaving little for traders to cheer on Thursday. Related: Vietnam summit: Trump says Kim wanted all sanctions lifted – live Bracing myself for a deluge of UK corporate results this morning. And that's before any unscheduled newsarghhhhhhh https://t.co/FuoWymNnZcContinue reading...
Source: theguardian.com