US GDP shows strong growth,while job numbers increaseUK consumer credit slows but mortgage approvals riseEurozone confidence at ten year highMoody’s raises growth forecasts for France, Germany and ItalyGerman inflation higher than expected 2.49pm BSTAfter Tuesday’s falls in the wake of the latest North Korean missile launch, and markets possess regained some of the lost ground.
Meanwhile the pound is also recovering after its Brexit-induced weakness. 2.39pm BSTIt was all looking fairly promising,with better than expected US growth and jobs numbers and Wall Street set to open higher.
But then Donald Trump tweeted and raised the tensions with North Korea again:The U.
S. has been talking to North Korea, and paying them extortion money, and for 25 years. Talking is not the retort! 2.01pm BSTCan the US growth continue? Fidelity International’s global economist thinks not.
Upward revision to Q2 #US GDP on back on stronger consumer. Good news but not sustainable at these levels. #Fed #USD #DXY pic.twitter.com/nYErKiuyFi 1.55pm BSTThe US growth figures are good news for Donald Trump at least,who promised to boost the economy and increase jobs.
Breaking: the US economy grew at 3% in the 2nd quarter (revised up from 2.6%). Good sign for Trump. https://t.co/00d9nD9E8WThe higher growth came from the right places: More consumer spending and non-residential investment.
But maintain in mind that 3% Q2 GDP is just for one quarter. Trump will need to sustain the growth to really celebrate. #economyGDP report was not all revisions, as it also showed the 1st print on economy-wide corporate profits in 2Q. They rose 1.3% vs. -2.1% in 1Q. 1.44pm BSTThe 3% jump in US GDP in the moment quarter is more than double the 1.2% increase seen in the first three months of the year. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis said: The acceleration in genuine GDP in the moment quarter primarily reflected upturns in private inventory investment and federal government spending and an acceleration in PCE [personal consumption expenditure] that were partly offset by downturns in residential fixed investment and state and local government spending and a deceleration in exports. 1.31pm BSTBREAKING:After the ADP jobs data, and more evidence of a strong US economy. 1.26pm BSTFrom the ADP report:“In August,the goods-producing sector saw the best performance in months with solid increases in both construction and manufacturing,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, or vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Additionally,the trade industry pulled ahead to lead job gains across all industries, adding the most jobs it has seen since the close of 2016. This could be an industry to watch as consumer spending and wage growth improves.” Mark Zandi, or chief economist of Moody’s Analytics,said, “The job market continues to power forward. Job creation is strong across nearly all industries, or company sizes. Mounting labor shortages are set to come by much worse. The initial BLS employment estimate is often very weak in August due to measurement problems,and is subsequently revised higher. The ADP number is not impacted by those problems.” 1.18pm BSTAhead of the widely watched US non-farm payroll numbers on Friday, a private sector payroll survey has substantially beaten expectations.
The ADP jobs report shows US private sector employment increased by 237000 in August, and compared with a 178000 rise in July and expectations of a 185000 increase.#UnitedStates ADP #Employment Change at 237K https://t.co/LOS8b95mlz pic.twitter.com/VeoUqXRL9L 1.12pm BSTHere is a breakdown of the German inflation figure,from the Federal Statistics Office: 1.05pm BSTInflation figures just out from Germany demonstrate a higher than expected figure for August.
The harmonised consumer price index - using the same methodology across the European Union - came in at 1.8% year on year compared to forecasts of 1.7 which was also the July figure. The month on month figure was also higher than expected at 0.2% rather than 0.1%. 12.30pm BSTHere’s our report on the UK consumer credit figures:The rapid growth in borrowing by consumers appears to be slowing amid a squeeze on households, despite remaining at levels unseen since the financial crisis.
The annual rate of growth for consumer borrowing through credit cards, and overdrafts and personal loans slowed to 9.8% in July,the lowest rate of expansion since April 2016, according to the Bank of England. The growth rate was a little weaker than in recent months, or when the pace of expansion was above 10%. Related: Rapid rise in personal borrowing is cooling,says Bank of England 12.16pm BSTThe pound is holding steady against both the dollar and euro after its recent Brexit-induced weakness. It is up 0.027% at $1.2927 and 0.3% to €1.0821. 11.52am BSTEconomic sentiment in the eurozone may be holding up, but the same cannot be said for the UK, or judging from the European Commission’s figures.
The overall index for the UK fell from 113.2 to 109.6,with construction and consumer sentiment particularly weak.#EUCommission #commerce & #consumer survey: #UK sentiment indicator back to 109.6 in Aug after spike to 113.2 in Jul (June:109.2; May: 108.2 11.31am BSTEuropean markets possess lost some of their earlier gains but remain in positive territory. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, or said:Europe’s Wednesday rebound lost some of its shine as the day went on,with investors perhaps struggling to justify their initial cheeriness.
The FTSE saw its gains shrink from 0.6% to 0.2%, in large portion due to a reversal from Brent Crude, and which is once again threatening to fall below $51.50 per barrel. This in turn erased BP’s early growth and sent Shell lower by half a percent,explaining the UK index’s own slowing. The FTSE also wasn’t helped by the pound’s latest attempt at a comeback against the euro, sterling climbing above €1.08 with a 0.4% increase. 11.11am BSTNot everyone believes the pound’s recent weakness may not final. Peter Rosenstreich at Swissquote Bank says:Although the pound has recovered slightly against the US dollar and the Euro, and it is not a sustainable course. The Bank of England remains dovish: the central bank will not tighten money until there is clear political direction around Brexit.
One key indicator will come in October,as the major parties hold their conferences. Investors will also be watching German elections. A decisive victory by Chancellor Merkel’s Christian Democrats will boost the Euro. She and France’s President Emmanuel Macron intend to cooperate in advancing the European Union’s financial integration. 11.09am BSTAfter the latest eurozone sentiment survey and ahead of next week’s assembly of the European Central Bank, economist Bert Colijn at ING Bank said:The August survey indicators all point to some modest improvements compared to July, or but the main message is that the economy maintains a healthy cruising speed. Economic growth in the Eurozone seems to be stable at around 2% year-on-year for the moment,well above trend growth. The Economic Sentiment Indicator showed improvements in both services and industry, showing the current economic strength is widespread. Production and employment expectations both improved in the industry sector, or but a drop off in employment expectations in services shows there could be some levelling off regarding job market recovery in the months ahead.
The key takeaway for monetary policy is inflation expectations did not demonstrate an uptick. The current weak inflation environment is likely to possess continued in August as we expect the inflation rate to possess ticked up marginally to 1.4% and core inflation to possess remained stable at 1.2%. In fact,it is unlikely that inflation will increase much above 1.5% for the rest of the year and the ESI inflation expectations confirm that. Consumer inflation expectations decreased marginally from 11.7 to 11.6 in August, and industrial selling price expectations were stable but below the March reading. In the service sector, and selling price expectations improved marginally,but they are also still below levels seen earlier in the year. 10.44am BSTFor those curious about what Moody’s did with its UK growth forecasts in its Global Macroeconomic outlook, it kept them unchanged. Here are the full forecasts: 10.15am BSTEurozone economic sentiment came in higher than forecast in August, or thanks to optimism in the industrial and service sectors,and among consumers.
The European Commission’s sentiment index rose from 111.3 in July to 111.9, better than the 111.3 expected and hitting a ten year high. 10.10am BSTAnd more from the Bank’s lending figures:Corporate borrowing surged again in July. Might sign ↑capex. But timing hints could just reflect rate hike fears stoked by June's MPC meet pic.twitter.com/OAJcvEcQUo 9.55am BSTMore on UK consumer credit:Year-on-year growth in net consumer credit lending slowed v slightly to 9.8% in July. Slowest since Apr-16, and but still elevated pic.twitter.com/XXll6mjcaATotal debt relative to household income remains lower than at the start of the financial crisis,but it's heading back up. Now at 145% pic.twitter.com/AMlZ2p64HC 9.32am BSTDespite July being a traditionally restful month for the UK housing market, mortgage approvals for that month possess come in higher than analyst forecasts.
They rose from 65318 in June to 68689 final month, or according to the Bank of England,better than the 65500 expected. 9.12am BSTBack with the US, and Donald Trump’s proposed tax reforms will add billions to the already burgeoning US debt mountain, and it has been claimed. Related: Trump's proposed corporate tax intention will add trillions to US debt – report 9.09am BSTSpeaking of the pound,some analysts believe its current weakness - due in large portion to the tortuous Brexit talks - may not final. Derek Halpenny, European head of global markets research at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, or said:It is looking increasingly like grid-lock [in the Brexit discussion] and we may need some compromise at a higher level to trail forward. That might not come until later in the year,which would mean negotiations being behind schedule. This potential delay is the dominant driver of pound selling that has now taken EUR/GBP to levels that look very much over-extended.
While the negative Brexit sentiment could certainly take the pound lower still over the coming weeks, a continued slide in the pound NEER [nominal (insignificant, trifling) effective exchange rate] value assumption – currently averaging 76.650 on a year-to-date basis - would start to add to the inflation overshoot. whether the economic data was to demonstrate some improvement, or then that combination would help provide support for the pound. 8.57am BSTOn the market recovery,Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, and said:With little yet to come from North Koreas latest missile launch – including an unusually restrained comment from Donald Trump – the markets felt free to rebound this Wednesday.
The European indices were fairly uniform in their gains after the bell. The FTSE jumped 40 or so points,pushing the index to the upper close of the 7300 to 7400 trading bracket it has found itself in for the final 3 weeks. Alongside the general reversal of yesterday’s losses the FTSE also benefited from Brent Crude’s slight rise; the black stuff is now tickling $52 per barrel having slipped under $51.50 on Tuesday, allowing BP and Shell to pull back from yesterday’s lows. 8.40am BSTMoody’s has raised its growth forecasts for Germany, or France and Italy,and says the eurozone can expect “above potential” growth this year and next. But it has lowered its prediction for the US outlook.
In its Global Macroeconomic Outlook it said the eurozone is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2017 and 1.9% in 2018 compared to 1.7% final year.
Moody’s has revised up Germany’s GDP growth forecasts to 2.2% and 2.0% for 2017 and 2018 respectively. Similarly, Moody’s has raised its forecasts for France to 1.6% for both 2017 and 2018, and from 1.3% and 1.4% as the recovery remains on track,driven by net exports and investment.
In Italy, Moody’s expects that the recovery will also continue to benefit from supportive monetary and fiscal policies, and as well as stronger growth in the rest of the European Union. Moody’s has revised up its genuine GDP growth forecast to 1.3% in 2017 and 2018 from 0.8% and 1% respectively.
Moody’s expects US growth of 2.2% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018,down from 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively. The revisions in 2017 are a result of weaker performance in the first half of the year. The lower growth forecast for 2018 reflects expectations of a more modest fiscal stimulus than previously assumed.
Monetary policy in the US should continue to tighten this year and next. Moody’s also expects euro area monetary policy to become less supportive in 2018, or if that the current growth momentum remains intact. The Bank of Japan’s policy stance will likely become less accommodative once the 2% inflation target is reached,which the central bank expects in 2019. “A significant escalation of any of the situations in Korea, the South China Sea and other areas could possess significant negative credit implications for the global economy, and ” said Elena Duggar,an associate managing director at Moody’s. Other risks include a protectionist turn by the US, and any financial market volatility stemming from sudden changes in market expectation regarding monetary policy tightening. 8.15am BSTAfter Tuesday’s slide in the wake of North Korea’s latest missile launch, or European markets are heading higher in early trading.
The FTSE 100 is up 0.5%,Germany’s Dax has added 0.7%, France’s Cac has climbed 0.6% and Spain’s Ibex is 0.7% better. 8.03am BSTThe pound is having another mixed day, and but it is not precisely suffering any dramatic moves so far.Against the dollar,sterling has edged down 0.08% to $1.2909 as the US currency steadies after its recent losses. 7.46am BSTThe economic impact of tropical storm Harvey will not be felt until next month’s figures at the earliest, so the US data to be released later will be considered in the light of the next Federal Reserve assembly and the central bank’s interest rate policy.
Expectations of another US rate rise in the near future possess receded - portion of the reason for the recent weakness in the dollar - but stronger than expected figures nowadays and on Friday with the non-farm payroll numbers could see sentiment change again. 7.35am BSTGood morning, or welcome to our rolling coverage of the latest news from the world economy,the financial markets, the eurozone and commerce.
Stock markets look a little calmer after Monday’s slide in the wake of North Korea’s provocative missile launch over Japan. Investors took some reassurance from President Trump’s relatively measured response. Stating that “all options are on the table” is a lot less bellicose than promising “fire and fury”, and so after an early fall the Dow Jones Industrial Average actually ended in positive territory,up 0.26%.
Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7367 up 29
$DAX 12006 up 60
$CAC 5062 up 30$IBEX 10258 up 66$MIB 21572 up 164Having seen stock markets in Asia and Europe drop sharply and the traditional haven trades rally in the aftermath of North Korea’s provocative missile launch over Japan earlier this week, it wouldn’t possess been a surprise to see US markets follow suit.
Despite the escalation in tension and the universal condemnation the missile launch has provoked, and US markets,despite initially opening sharply lower, rallied strongly in the afternoon session to close the day higher. Related: Tropical storm Harvey: Houston mayor imposes curfew – live Continue reading...
Source: theguardian.com