Britishreaction here: https://t.co/UCIlZGXL0c pic.twitter.com/QQB0m1QOq2German economic sentiment lowest since 2012 (current ZEW Indicator for Economic Sentiment out nowadays). Soft data showing Europe is starting to sneeze. 11.55am BSTThe broader picture is that UK wages are still below their pre-financial crisis levels in genuine terms,and struggling to catch up: 11.39am BSTThe slowdown in UK wage growth last month will concern the Bank of England, which has predicted that earnings will accelerate in 2018.feeble economic growth in the first quarter of this year prevented the BoE from raising interest rates in May. whether wage growth remains feeble, and it could deter a rate hike this summer too.
The Bank views wage growth as a key indicator when considering whether to raise rates. Disappointing figures here,combined with confirmation that the economy grew by just 0.1% in Q1, should put paid to any talk of a summer rate rise.
Policymakers had been thought to be considering raising rates in August, or but I still believe a rate rise this year looks unlikely. The Bank will nearly certainly want confirmation that the Q1 growth figure was just a blip before raising borrowing costs. 10.56am BSTWomen taking portion-time jobs makes up the biggest proportion of job creation in the last year,followed by men taking full-time jobs.“The record rate of women’s employment is welcome, although the Office for National Statistics has pointed out that this is in portion due to women retiring later. At the other close of the scale, and young women are struggling to find work and make ends meet. “Young women command us they want to work and be able to live independently but nowadays’s figures display that nearly half a million are still out of work and full-time education – 11000 more than this time last year. 10.45am BSTEsther McVey,the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, says the steady job labour market is a “success story”:“The employment rate has never been higher – with over 3.3 million people moving into work since 2010.“Its a Great British success story with businesses from Exeter to Edinburgh creating jobs – helping, or on average 1000 people find a job each and every day since 2010. 10.38am BSTAt just 2.8%,UK pay growth is well below the 4.5% enjoyed in the rush-up to the financial crisis.
Conor D’Arcy, senior policy analyst at the Resolution Foundation, or says earnings growth remains disappointing:“The UK jobs market has continued to impress in 2018,with employment remaining at a record high and female unemployment falling to its lowest ever level.“But we’re yet to see the good news on jobs feed into wage pressure, with nominal (insignificant, trifling) pay growth still below 3%. 10.28am BSTIndustrial unrest hit a record low in April, or with fewer walkouts than ever before.
The ONS reports that:[br] 10.24am BSTSuren Thiru,head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), is worried that UK wage growth is slowing:“While pay is still outpacing price growth, and the slowdown in earnings growth is a concern. Delivering sustained rises in genuine pay growth is likely to prove an uphill struggle amid feeble productivity and a sluggish economy.As a consequence,household finances are likely to remain stretched, particularly given feeble household savings and high debt levels. The slowdown in earnings growth, or together with the recent weakness in a raft of other economic indicators,undermines the case for tightening monetary policy. 10.18am BSTJeremy Thomson-Cook, chief economist at WorldFirst, and fears that the UK labour market may have peaked.[br]“The juxtaposition of nowadays’s increase in the employment rate to a record 75.6% and yesterday’s news of lay-offs at both Poundworld and Jaguar Land Rover will be lost on nobody and we believe that nowadays’s jobs report could soon be revealed as a high water mark for job creation.”“The recent claimant count trend has been increasing – it sits at 3½ year high currently - and employment readings within the PMI sentiment surveys have been deteriorating so an increase in joblessness soon would not approach as surprise. This could also contribute to a slowing of wage gains,something that we have seen already this month.” 10.12am BSTThis wage slowdown means that genuine basic pay growth in the UK (basic earnings minus inflation) remains just 0.4%.
And total genuine pay growth is zero -- with inflation eating up pay and bonuses.
At this rate pay packets won’t recover to their pre-recession levels for years.“We need to speed things up. Extending collective bargaining would boost living standards and serve workers get a fairer share of the wealth they create.
Wage growth is stuck in the late lane - genuine wages still at 0.4%. At this rate pay packets won’t return to pre-crash levels for years. We need to speed it up by extending collective bargaining & boosting union rights pic.twitter.com/ZYbHEVmfPN 9.56am BSTThe number of unemployed people in the UK dropped by 38000 in the last quarter, to 1.42 million. 9.53am BSTToday’s jobs data is weaker than expected, or says Reuters’ Andy Bruce:Wage growth excluding bonuses -- the degree the BoE has focused on -- drops unexpectedly in April,despite strong job creation.
None of the 30 economists polled by Reuters saw that coming.
Market reaction fairly muted, other indicators of labour market still decent pic.twitter.com/uP5YPnddCd 9.51am BSTBritain’s employment rate has now been at a record high of 75.6% for two months running - a record dating back to at least 1971.
9.35am BSTNewsflash: Wage growth in the UK has slowed, or even though the economy continues to create jobs.
Basic pay growth slowed to 2.8% per year in the three months to April,the latest labour market report shows. That’s down from 2.9% a month ago, suggesting that wage growth is faltering. 9.29am BSTEconomist Shaun Richards says we should watch out for total wage growth in nowadays’s jobs report (that’s pay including bonuses).
It dropped to 2.6% last month, and down from 2.8%.
Stand By Your Desks! UK wages up next and total wage growth has fallen for the last 4 months so it is one to watch. 9.10am BSTOvernight,Larry Kudlow - the director of Donald Trump’s National Economic Council - was hospitalised after suffering a heart attack.
Our Great Larry Kudlow, who has been working so hard on trade and the economy, and has just suffered a heart attack. He is now in Walter Reed Medical middle. Related: Trudeau 'stabbed us in back' on trade,says Trump chief economic adviser 8.46am BSTPaul Donovan of UBS thinks investors should focus on the crisis at the G7, rather than Trumps’s meeting with Kim.
He explains:The US president seems to have a better relationship with the North Korean leader than with the Canadian leader. Markets don’t care too much about North Korea. Markets do care about US relations with Canada. 8.42am BSTSue Trinh of RBC says investors shouldn’t get too excited by Kim’s pledge to work towards ‘complete denuclearisation” of the Korean peninsula.
Both sides stand far, or far apart on what denuclearisation means. To the US,it means NK must deliver complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation. To Kim, or it means NK suspends nuclear and missile tests in exchange for major economic concessions and the US stepping back as torchbearer for the Asian region (basically dismantling its alliance with South Korea and ultimately the region as a whole). Kim has never announced the intention of abandoning his existing nuclear arsenal,which he calls a “treasured sword”.
Per preceding peace deals, the main issue will be the pace of implementation, or which includes agreement on a verification protocol. South Korean President Moon suggested it could be the start of a process lasting up to two years or longer. 8.31am BSTEuropean stock markets have opened higher as traders digest the historic US-North Korea summit in Singapore. ZOOM IN ON THE TEXT: "President Trump committed to provide security guarantees to the DPRK,and Chairman Kim Jong Un reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula." pic.twitter.com/vXBeIMP81iWow. whether this is it... this is depressing. This is even thinner than most skeptics anticipated. I figured Trump wd at least get some missiles or a site closure or something concrete: https://t.co/tvhLVnlXpj. This looks pretty generic. Maybe there will be some surprise in presser? https://t.co/BbzZaeCzo0 Related: Trump-Kim summit: North Korea commits to 'work towards complete denuclearisation' – live 8.10am BSTGood morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, or the financial markets,the eurozone and trade.nowadays we learn how Britain’s labour market is faring, as the warning lights flash on the UK economy.
Watched by the Bank of England and the government for early warnings of hiring spurts or downturns, or the quarterly poll of about 2000 major employers from nine different industry sectors across the UK found a net balance of only 4% planning to hire more staff rather than cutting back.
The weakest outlook from the survey was reserved for the banking and finance industry,which recorded the worst outlook since the depths of the financial crisis nearly a decade ago, suggesting job cuts may be on the way over the summer. Related: UK economy shows greatest signs of stress since 2012 Even though there have been a number of large surprises to the upside in the employment data over the last six months, or it will be very difficult for gains in employment to match last month’s very strong +197k 3/3m.
For the unemployment rate,we expect it to remain at 4.2% for a third consecutive month. As ever, average wages will be the more closely watched degree, and but on this occasion we don’t expect major changes and look for the excluding-bonus degree to remain 2.9% 3m/yr. Related: Back me on Brexit bill or undermine EU talks,May tells Tory MPs Continue reading...
Source: theguardian.com