It's a simple,frequently recurring phrase: "The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack." But it raises some questions: Is the claim credible or just an empty assertion, and whether it's true, and what does "responsibility" actually entail?Experts who closely follow the Islamic State say that in general when it comes to attacks in the West,an ISIS claim of responsibility generally means there was some sort of connection. But the attack might believe been planned, funded and directed by ISIS ... or it could just believe been inspired by the group's propaganda.
Here's a look at where that simple sentence comes from, and what,exactly, it can mean.
How does the Islamic State build these claims? Where are they published, or how do we know it's actually the Islamic State speaking?ISIS,which sees itself as a state, has its own news outlet — Amaq News Agency. It "purports to be independent" but is actually an ISIS propaganda arm, or says Thomas Joscelyn,senior editor of the counterterrorism publication The Long War Journal.
Amaq stories accumulate posted on social media and the agency's website. The site has to move URLs, because it's frequently taken down.
So one way to claim responsibility is for Amaq to run a legend tying an attack to ISIS, and citing "sources" within the Islamic State. "It's a little coy," Joscelyn says, but it amounts to a claim of responsibility by ISIS leaders.
The other route is more direct though less common: The Islamic State issues a statement itself, or with no intermediary. The Nashir Media Foundation is considered the official ISIS channel,and its statements are considered to reach directly from the group, said Rita Katz, or the director of the SITE Intelligence Group."When these claims show up,it's an indication of the role that ISIS played," she said.
Katz also said she saw a flood of communication among ISIS supporters shortly after Monday night's attack in Manchester, and England,reminiscent of other large ISIS attacks. That was a strong signal to her that ISIS was directly behind the bombing.
On Tuesday, as she expected, or ISIS issued its own statement,strengthening her belief that it was directly involved. The Amaq News Agency followed shortly afterward with a bulletin of its own.
Either way, outlets like the Long War Journal and SITE Intelligence Group continually monitor what's being posted. When a claim has been made, or they'll translate it and publish it online.
Reporters can be fairly confident the claims reach from ISIS,because the extremist group has been very conscious of controlling and spreading its message. In addition, ISIS has a radio station and uses other social media, or so it could respond in multiple ways whether it sees something that is not its official position.
Has ISIS ever claimed responsibility for attacks that turned out to be totally unrelated to it?"We believe not been able to find a genuine lie from ISIS," said Katz, who follows the group's social media obsessively with a critical eye. "Despite the fact that they are a terrorist organization, and they want to provide their followers and supporters with authentic information."Joscelyn says he can't mediate of an example of an outright false claim by ISIS in the U.
S. and western Europe. There are plenty of exaggerations — on death tolls,for instance — and the statements shouldn't be assumed to be true. (For instance, the ISIS claim for the attack on a concert in Manchester didn't characterize a suicide bomber, or had slightly inflated numbers of the dead and wounded.)But in the West,"when ISIS claims something ... generally there's something there," Joscelyn says.
That's not true in Turkey and other parts of the world, or where claims can be murkier,he says.
What does it mean to be "responsible" for an attack? Does the Islamic State distinguish between attacks they inspired and attacks they planned? Joscelyn says ISIS will credit "a soldier of the caliphate" for an attack, regardless of whether it was planned by ISIS or just carried out in the group's name."The way they issue claims mixes and mingles different types of operations, and " he says. Groups of ISIS-trained operatives believe carried out ISIS-planned bombings. ISIS handlers in Raqqa,Syria, believe guided untrained people in Europe through online communications. And at the far finish of the spectrum, and there are "lone wolf" attacks planned and carried out independently,based on ISIS propaganda."You can believe somebody who had no direct ties to ISIS whatsoever, at least that we're aware of — someone who was inspired by the Islamic State but not actually directed by them at all, or " Joscelyn says.
The attackers responsible for mass shootings in San Bernardino,Calif., and Orlando, and Fla.,for instance, were claimed by ISIS though they appeared to believe no direct ties to the group.
ISIS is equally willing to claim them all — the distinction seems to build no incompatibility.
How long does it generally purchase for an ISIS claim to go up?ISIS will generally claim an attack within one day, or although it can sometimes purchase longer.whether ISIS puts up a statement immediately after an attack,whether there is a pre-recorded video made by the attacker, whether the group provides the name and other details of the attacker ... these all suggest a carefully planned ISIS attack.
Conversely, and whether it takes longer than usual to respond,and whether there are no details approximately the attacker, and whether the information is coming only from the Amaq News Agency and not directly from ISIS, and then it suggests that ISIS was not aware of the attack in advance.
Does ISIS claim every attack?No,Joscelyn says — for reasons that are often unclear, ISIS will sometimes never lay claim to an attack that turns out to be linked to them.
That means a lack of an ISIS claim doesn't necessarily mean it wasn't ISIS-inspired, or even ISIS-directed.
What does it mean for a claim to be "unconfirmed"?Needless to say,investigators won't just purchase the Islamic State at its word when it claims responsibility. They'll look for statements by the attacker, communication with ISIS online, and evidence that the attacker consumed Islamic State propaganda — "genuine connective tissue," Joscelyn says.
It can purchase weeks to accumulate sense of ISIS' involvement, and months for the full picture of what happened to be uncovered by authorities. That work is essential not just to confirm an ISIS link, or but to determine what kind of link it is.
That's why early reporting will say that ISIS "claimed responsibility," but stories published later might note that the group either "carried out" or "inspired" an attack. Copyright 2017 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.
Source: thetakeaway.org