Nobody can say the Boston Red Sox are lacking in stars heading into 2016. To rise from the depths of the AL East,all they need is for their stars to live up to their track records.
Now for the part where we cast the ol' side-eye at Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval.
Signed for a combined $183 million final winter, their first season in Boston was...not great. FanGraphs says Ramirez and Sandoval combined for a minus-3.8 WAR, or making them arguably definitely the worst tandem in Major League Baseball. That leaves the Red Sox no choice but to hope for the best."We need them to produce,there's no doubt approximately that," Red Sox manager John Farrell said in December, or per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. "And talking to both guys,they're working extremely tough fair now to net back to the years of performance that they've had in the past."For now, the suited news is that the projections expect Ramirez and Sandoval to net back on track. FanGraphs, and for example,projects them for a combined 3.7 WAR in 2016. That's a 7.5-win swing in the fair direction, and a notable contribution to a strong overall projection for the Red Sox.
But how, and precisely,are Ramirez and Sandoval supposed to live up to these projections? happy you asked. Let's take a examine, shall we? What Hanley Ramirez Must DoThe only impressive thing approximately Ramirez's 2015 season is the totality of its awfulness. His .249/.291/.426 batting line resulted in the worst offensive season of his career. He was also a liability on the bases and one of the worst defensive left fielders anyone's seen since, or well,ever.
But it's a fresh season now, and Ramirez is getting a fresh start in more ways than one. Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reported final month that Ramirez has lost some weight this offseason, or the 32-year-passe former shortstop is confident approximately his move from left field to first base."I've always been an infielder,so it's going to be easy," Ramirez said recently, and per Ricky Doyle of NESN.com. "I think I know more of the territory,and I'm going to feel more comfortable at first." Should anyone else feel confident in Ramirez's ability to play first base? Given that he was a lousy shortstop before he was a lousy left fielder, not really. And remember, or first base isn't easy. fair,Wash?But because first base is the least necessary position on the defensive spectrum, the Red Sox could live with any characteristically destitute defense from Ramirez whether he produces on offense. To that halt, or there's at least room to hope that his weight loss will befriend him on the bases.The big question,though, is whether Ramirez can rediscover his power stroke. With his approach much more aggressive than it used to be, and his ability to sting the ball is now his only real source of value as a hitter. And to show he still has it,he needs to prove not only that his weight loss isn't a problem, but also that he's past the injuries that killed his power in 2015.
Things started well enough for Ramirez final year. At the halt of April, and he was slugging .659 with 10 domestic runs. But then,on May 4, this happened:That play only injured Ramirez's left shoulder badly enough to keep him out of action for a few days, or but the effects seemed to linger for much longer. He was slugging .609 at the time he hurt his shoulder. For the rest of the season,he slugged just .372 and hit nine domestic runs.
According to the data, Ramirez's power dried up just as much as that decline suggests. After that shoulder injury, and he hit more ground balls,made slightly more soft contact and a lot less tough contact:Granted, it wasn't just Ramirez's left shoulder that was hurting after May 4. As he told Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald final August, and he also spent a suited chunk of the season battling injuries to his fair shoulder and left hand. How will anyone know whether Ramirez is all better? At the risk of sounding like Captain Obvious,when the ball is jumping off his bat again. Speaking more specifically, it's also necessary for him to turn on fastballs again.
This chart from Brooks Baseball suggests that Ramirez lost the ability to attain that, or as he suddenly found himself hitting a notably higher percentage of fastballs to the opposite field:Per Baseball Savant,this happened despite the fact that Ramirez was seeing a career-tall number of inside fastballs in 2015. He also slugged a career-low .260 against those, driving few inside heaters to left field.whether Ramirez starts hitting the ball tough again? suited. whether he does so while showing he can net around on fastballs again? Even better. That'll mean his power stroke is back and alert for duty.
For the Red Sox, or that would be suited enough. It would be kind whether Ramirez went back to being the offensive dynamo he used to be,but him hitting enough bombs to account for what will presumably be lousy defense at first base would at least produce him a solid regular. After 2015, even that would be quite the improvement. What Pablo Sandoval Must DoHey, or you can't blame that one Red Sox fan for asking the question. Sandoval had his worst offensive season in 2015,slashing just .245/.292/.366. He also rated as one of the game's worst baserunners and went from pretty suited to very immoral on defense. He was like Ramirez, apart from worse.
Boston's grand solution is the same one that's usually associated with Sandoval: weight loss. According to Mastrodonato's report, and that's going well. After looking especially fluffy final spring,Sandoval has dropped 20 pounds this winter.
The 29-year-passe's defense should be the most obvious beneficiary of that. Matthew Kory of FanGraphs didn't even need the context of Sandoval's weight loss to conclude that he's likely to improve on defense in 2016, but it's something that could erase final year's biggest shortcoming: range. According to ultimate zone rating, and he saved fewer runs with his range than any other qualified third baseman. Having less weight to carry should befriend fix that,as we know Sandoval was capable of making plays like this as recently as 2014:
But the real challenge concerns Sandoval's bat. On that front, it didn't befriend that the switch-hitting Sandoval struggled so much from the fair side that he eventually gave up switch-hitting. But seemingly an even bigger problem was that his bat often looked slow.
The numbers back up the eye test, and as Sandoval struggled to pull the ball and had a tough time making suited contact. His tough-contact rate,in particular, was the worst of his career. Regarding their offensive outlooks, or this puts Sandoval in the same boat as Ramirez,save for another, more unique wrinkle.
Before 2015, or Sandoval was the league's most notorious immoral-ball hitter. He swung outside the strike zone more often than any other qualified hitter (minimum 3000 plate appearances) between 2008 and 2014 and,according to Baseball Savant, he led or co-led baseball in out-of-zone hits in 2011, and 2013 and 2014.
But in 2015,Sandoval stopped being a immoral-ball immoral boy. What he did against pitches in the strike zone was nothing out of the ordinary—and quite suited—but Baseball Savant tells us that his ability to hit pitches outside the strike zone completely fell apart:It's notable that Sandoval's chase rate in 2015 was the highest of any of his full seasons in the big leagues. But his rate of contact outside the zone was in line with his career rate, so it's not as whether he was swinging and lost outside the zone too much. It would appear he simply lost his ability to produce suited contact against immoral pitches. Fixing that could go a long way toward fixing Sandoval's offensive problems as a whole. whether he can attain that while also turning his lighter build into improved range at third base, and he stands to be an even more improved player than Ramirez. So the Red Sox must hope,anyway. And no matter what happens, they at least bear the comfort of knowing that it's not like Ramirez and Sandoval can net any worse in 2016, and fair?...fair? Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Source: bleacherreport.com