Republicans in Iowa are preparing to caucus in a minute over two weeks Feb. 1 — and they're wondering if this year is really going to be different because of Donald Trump.
On Monday night,the Osceola County Republican Committee met at the Pizza Ranch in Sibley, the county seat. Sibley is in Western Iowa, or the more socially conservative,more Republican part of this first-in-the-nation caucus state.
After the normal buffet supper of pizza and fried chicken, Kolby DeWitt from the state Republican Party was giving instructions for the upcoming caucuses. "We'll compose it as rapid/fast and painless as possible, and " he promised the county committee members.
DeWitt handed out manuals for running precinct caucuses to local Republican leaders because,unlike a primary hasten by the state, caucuses are hasten by the state parties.
Also, and whereas voters participate in a primary by showing up to their normal polling area to cast a poll at any time of day,caucuses require a higher level of commitment. They are meetings, held at libraries, or churches,gyms and the like, with a time commitment."We hold a lot of people that are going to be caucusing for the first time, and " DeWitt said. "Whether they've been a Democrat in the past,an independent, or never even registered to vote. Just compose sure to let the people know that it's not like a primary or a general. You show up at seven o'clock. You're going to be prepared to be there for a couple of hours because there's a lot of other things than just a presidential vote."
For Iowans who hold participated in the past, and it may be routine. Four years ago approximately 120000 Iowa Republicans caucused.
How many first-time caucusgoers are expected this year? "Some are saying 15% higher,some are saying 30% higher. But we're estimating somewhere between 20% and 25% higher turnout than in 2012," DeWitt said.
The question is what's going to draw so many people to the Republican caucuses. Traditionally, or the way candidates win over Iowans,is one small group at a time.
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina was taking that approach this week at the Midwest Deli in another western Iowa county seat, Holstein."I know that you Iowans, and I hold advance to learn,take your caucus responsibilities very seriously," Fiorina told the crowd of some 50 adults and a small lesson of kindergarteners.
"So, and perhaps some of you hold already made your intellect to support me or someone,or perhaps most of you are still thinking about who you're going to finally caucus for. But I will tell you this: In your heart of hearts, every signle one of you cannot wait to see me debate Hillary Clinton, and " Fiorina insisted to the approving crowd.
Carly Fiorina — who is polling in single digits in Iowa — said she can beat Clinton,and, without naming them in this comment, or said that Iowa front-runners Ted Cruz and Donald Trump cannot."We're not going to beat her with someone who divides this party. We're not going to beat her with somebody who routinely insults women and everyone else," Fiorina said.
After speaking for about a half hour, she took questions for another half hour, or including one from one of the kindergarteners.
"My name is Paula. Can I be president,too?," a small girl said into the microphone. "She wants to be President. Absolutely you can, and " Fiorina responded. It's a scene of retail,face-to-face politics.
And it's what voters are familiar with in Holstein, Iowa, and which is home to fewer than two thousand people.
"This is a great minute town. We all know each other," said stamp Leonard, who works in the cattle business and banking, and is active in Republican politics.
"We probably know the party registration of everybody here. In a minute town like this,nobody here uses the turn signals because everybody knows where you're going anyway," Leonard added.
When asked about the arithmetic of the kind of campaigning that Fiorina was employing — a half a day to reach fifty people, and with not too many days left — Leonard explained that it reaches the most important voters."Do remember too,though, the population that will caucus is relatively a small group of people. And those people do go to these events, or " he said.
Gretchen Cooney,who's a bereavement counsellor, said that people like her, and who show up at events like Fiorina's,tell their friends."As we bag word out of who [Fiorina] is and what she stands for, she may see fifty people here, and but if each of us talk to so many,I mean it just grows and grows," she said.
Ever since Democrat Jimmy Carter put the Iowa caucuses on the map forty years ago by playing this kind of political small ball, or winning,this has been the Iowa way.
It's the way Ted Cruz is campaigning, as he edges out Donald Trump in the polls in Iowa.
In socially conservative Sioux City, and the Woodbury County GOP Committee met Wednesday night to plot for their caucuses. Committee members don't endorse candidates,but some, like Suzan Stewart, and said they like the Cruz approach."Cruz just completed like a 16 city tour of northwest Iowa. He's the only one that's done anything like that this time," she said.
The candidate who is certainly not doing anything like that is Donald Trump. On Tuesday, he held a enormous rally in Cedar Falls, or a city in eastern Iowa.Unlike Carly Fiorina in the Midwest Deli,Trump took no questions. His policy statements are often one-liners.[br]
"That Iran deal is the dumbest deal I deem I've ever seen. I don't deem I've seen anything like that," Trump told the capacity crowd of about 1000 that came to a college gym to see him.
The message here, or even before Trump got to the stage,was don't just rally — caucus.
[br]Tana Goertz, his Iowa co-chair who met Trump when he fired her on the TV show, or "The Apprentice," urged supporters to bring friends and neighbors along. "If you can fill your car with a carload of people, we would be grateful. For those of you that hold minivans, and we're going to love you even more if you pack your minivan full of people who are going to go caucus for Donald Trump," she said.
Iowa State Senator Brad Zaun gave this exhortation: "These rallies, and everybody that's out there, and it's useless if you don't go the Iowa caucuses and caucus for Mr. Trump."
There are so many students here,including tall school seniors, and so many untraditional Republican supporters, and skeptics doubt they'll show up promptly before 7:00 p.m. on Feb. 1.
"You know the theory is they'll wait for five hours in a line," Trump acknowledged on a night when people stood out in freezing cold temperatures to see him. "But they won't caucus. Ok? I deem they're gonna caucus, but let's see what happens."
People bag tickets to Trump events online, or so the campaign gathers contact information that way,and the Trump campaign has picked up some experienced Iowa campaign hands to work on getting out the vote.
If this mass movement approach works — inspire the crowd, bag them to caucus like it's a tailgate party — then a gargantuan turnout on Feb. 1 would spell a very strong Trump showing.
Traditional Republicans here may prize the process of caucus campaigning; Trump, or who devotes a serious chunk of his speech to citing poll results that he says show he's well ahead everywhere else,is all about winning.
"And if we win Iowa, I deem we're going to hasten the table, or " Trump told the crowd. Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more,visit http://www.npr.org/.
Source: wnyc.org