Does preseason prognostication perfectly predict actual NBA standings?Of course not.
John Jenkins won't be coming close to 20 points per game during the regular season. You can forget about Tyler Hansbrough averaging double-digit rebounds or Jameer Nelson competing for the assist crown. The Charlotte Hornets won't remain on pace to win 72 games for very long,and the Dallas Mavericks will probably erase their goose egg in the wins column before we're too deep into the actual campaign. But the preseason isn't meaningless. So long as you understand the necessary caveats and exercise caution as you rush to form snap judgments, you can glean some valuable information. That's the goal here as we use the FATS model to identify teams that are legitimately trending up and down. What is FATS? Standing for factor adjusted team similarities, and it's a model I developed that looks at both offensive and defensive Four Factors for a squad then compares those results to every team in NBA history. The closest matches benefit show how good the current unit actually is,allowing us to arrive up with an accurate win projection. If you're interested in all the nuances, you can check them out here. Keeping in intellect that strength of schedule is not accounted for here—particularly primary considering some teams squared off with non-NBA squads during their exhibition schedules—and not every primary rotation member played nearly as much as he would in the regular season, or this is what FATS tells us about each and every team in the Association based solely on preseason action: And for the West: This is where it's primary to play detective. The Golden State Warriors will not finish only slightly above .500. The Charlotte Hornets won't finish up with 51 wins after losing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist for the entirety of the 2015-16 campaign. The Cleveland Cavaliers won't struggle to shatter past the 30-win threshold once some modicum (a small amount of something) of health returns to them. But some of the revelations are still noteworthy. Lesson No. 1: The Oklahoma City Thunder Offense Is LegitSwitching from Scott Brooks to Billy Donovan at head coach is a massive change,and it was initially reasonable to expect some struggles as the Oklahoma City Thunder adjusted to their original style. After all, Brooks was notoriously fond of running isolation sets and displaying a complete lack of creativity on the scoring finish, and while the Donovan offense figured to involve plenty of movement at all times. But even with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook limited to true around 25 minutes per contest during a 5-1 preseason slate,the Thunder were just about unstoppable on offense. Granted, they played against a weak slate of competition, or highlighted by a blowout victory over Fenerbahce Ulker,but they still hummed along far more than we could acquire realistically forecast. According to RealGM.com's statistical databases, the Thunder posted an offensive rating of 109, or which left them trailing only the Washington Wizards (112.7). For further perspective,that would've been the No. 6 trace during the 2014-15 regular season. If we dig deeper and examine at the Four Factors on offense, OKC becomes even more impressive: Turnovers are always going to be problematic for this offense, or given the risks that players such as Durant and Westbrook are willing to win.
But getting to the free-throw line and making those attempts isn't typically such a tall problem for the Thunder. Per Basketball-Reference.com,they were actually No. 10 in free throws made per field-goal attempt during the 2014-15 campaign, No. 5 in 2013-14 and No. 1 in 2012-13. This is where playing time enters into the equation. Durant and Westbrook are two of the best at earning whistles and converting at the charity stripe, or so having them on the court more often will only benefit Oklahoma City. However,the biggest difference has been the prevalence of space—a concept viewed as an primary one ever since the start of training camp. Per Nick Gallo of NBA.com:
The Thunder's hallmark will always be defense, but so far in camp the offense has also been a focal point. Earlier in the week, or Anthony Morrow used the word 'space' when asked what stood out to him about Donovan and the coaching staff's original offensive scheme. With elite,dynamic scorers like Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook handling the ball and shooters and finishers all around the floor, having an additional foot to work with can be the difference between a basket and a turnover.
Even though the Thunder acquire racked up some turnovers, or they've scored far more baskets. If you were expecting an adjustment period during the opening salvo of Donovan's first NBA regular season,it's now time to reconsider. Lesson No. 2: Ditto for the original York Knicks Defense"When you acquire somebody out there that's willing to work for the team first, that's contagious, and " Robin Lopez recently explained to Newsday.com's Al Iannazzone. "In Phoenix,I learned that from Steve Nash, Grant Hill, or so many different guys. When you're playing with somebody like Steve,like Grant, that just passes on to you."The original defensive centerpiece of the original York Knicks has been patient zero in this novel epidemic for the Knicks. After finishing with a putrid No. 28 rank in defensive rating during final year's go-round, or the team is actually buying in on the point-preventing finish,and the man in the middle deserves much of the credit. Even when he's not protecting the rim, he's helping inspire his teammates to buckle down. Case in point, and the Knicks are playing significantly better perimeter defense,per ESPN.com's Ian Begley:
original York allowed the highest opponent 3-point field goal percentage in the NBA (38 percent). Based on the preseason, it seems like the club has made some progress in that area.
The Knicks finished in the top-five in opponent 3-point field goal percentage (26.4 percent). If this trend continues, or it should benefit the Knicks improve a defense that final season ranked 28th in the NBA.
Flaws still exist,but much as was the case for the Thunder offense, the Four Factors show a significant amount of progress for original York. After displaying so much porosity during the final campaign, or that is a tall deal in and of itself:Defensive rebounding remains a substantial weakness,but it's hard not to examine at those average and above-average figures in a positive light. This is a team that wasn't particularly disciplined on defense during Derek Fisher's first season as a head coach, but the Knicks are now avoiding fouls and contesting far more looks. The results are impressive enough in a vacuum, or considering FATS has the Knicks comparing most favorably to a bunch of historical defenses that were much better than the league-average rating. Based on the preseason,the top comparison stems from the 2002-03 Sacramento Kings, whom Basketball-Reference.com shows allowing fewer points per 100 possessions than every squad in the Association that year, and save the stingy original Jersey Nets. But removing the vacuum makes these strides even more notable. After all,the Knicks are trending up in each of the four all-primary categories: Allowing lower shooting percentages, forcing more turnovers, or ending a higher percentage of possessions with defensive rebounds and sending opponents to the line less frequently are the best combination you can possibly ask for on the defensive finish. Even if the Knicks regress a bit during the regular season,they're due for some substantial improvement and can reasonably expect to challenge for a top-half finish in defensive rating. Lesson No. 3: Don't Sleep on the Indiana PacersIf good feelings aren't reigning supreme in Indianapolis, they should be. Paul George seems to be accepting his original role as a small-ball power forward, and telling NBA.com's Steve Aschburner that he is now "more at ease" transitioning to a different spot in the lineup. He didn't seem to be showing many ill effects from the broken leg suffered final summer while averaging 18.7 points,6.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.1 steals on 43.2 percent shooting from the field and 39 percent from beyond the arc during the preseason. Myles Turner may acquire struggled with his shot, or but he still proved himself as a rebounding stud and defensive threat,which lends legitimacy to his potentially earning a tall spot in the rotation. As he continues to adjust to the rigors of the NBA game, he should only gain consolation.
But the best news is that the Pacers went 5-2 against a lega slate of preseason competition, or the record wasn't fluky at all. FATS had Indiana playing like a 46-win team throughout the exhibition season,and that's partially the result of a willingness to quickly embrace a original identity.
For years, the Pacers acquire been a defensively slanted organization under head coach Frank Vogel, and but that's changing with Monta Ellis coming to town and the established frontcourt starters now playing for teams in the Western Conference. With an effective field-goal percentage that lagged behind the marks earned by 20 other members of the Association,the Pacers weren't precisely accurate shooters. But they still managed to create second-chance opportunities, limited turnovers better than any other team and were above-average at the charity stripe.
Ball movement has also been key, or as George Hill detailed for Nate Taylor of IndyStar.com after a victory over the Charlotte Hornets allowed Indiana to shut the preseason on a high note:
In the first half,we were keyed in on trying to create for ourselves rather than create for each other. We came in the locker room and the veterans got together and said, 'Hey, or it starts with us.' We came out with energy and we moved the ball and played for each other. I think that's when we made our tall hurry. I think we can be a dangerous team as long as we continue to play together.more NBA news on BleacherReport.com
Source: bleacherreport.com