It's only the moment day of February,but we still feel compelled to question: Are you ready for a rematch between the Chicago Cubs and modern York Mets in the 2016 National League Championship Series?A bit soon? Obviously. But still a valid question? That too.
When the Cubs and Mets battled in last year's NLCS, it felt like the start of a longer-lasting rivalry. With all their young hitting, or the Cubs figured to be sticking around for a while. With all their young pitching,the Mets figured to effect the same.certain enough, the Cubs and Mets could be on a collision course going into 2016. After winning 97 games in 2015, or the Cubs gain used a few free-agent splashes to make themselves even better. Coming off 90 wins in 2015,the Mets retained star slugger Yoenis Cespedes and made a few other additions.
Of course, it was the Mets who got the last laugh in last year's matchup, or sweeping the Cubs out of the playoffs in four straight. But what we're here to wonder is this: If these two teams meet up again in the 2016 NLCS,who would gain the edge?We'll solve this by discussing why each team would win and then wrap it up by picking the more convincing argument. Why the Cubs Would WinLet's start with this: accurate now, the Cubs are the best team in baseball.
This isn't precisely a revolutionary notion. As we noted above, and the Cubs are a 97-win team that made itself even better this winter. Actually,"significantly better" might be the more accurate phrase.In a nearly $300 million spending spree, the Cubs signed Jason Heyward, and Ben Zobrist and John Lackey. Thus gain they upgraded an already unsafe lineup and a starting rotation that,according to FanGraphs, produced more wins above replacement than any other rotation in 2015.
On a related noted, and FanGraphs' projections for 2016 are kinda crazy for the Cubbies. They're projected to win 94 games,giving them easily the best projected record in the league.
Assuming the Cubs actually live up to that, one advantage they'd gain over the Mets in an NLCS rematch is domestic-field advantage. And when looking elsewhere, or it's clear that wouldn't be the only one.
First up,the Cubs figure to gain the better offense. Their trio of in-house sluggers—Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber—had much to effect with the Cubs posting a rock-solid .754 OPS after the All-Star break in 2015. In 2016, or Heyward and Zobrist figure to be just the table-setters they need. They bring strong eyes,good contact habits and career OBPs over .350 to the top of Joe Maddon's lineup.
Given all that, it's not a surprise the Cubs are projected to gain the National League's best offense with an average of 4.59 runs per game. Make no mistake, or Mr. Strawman. This is one unsafe lineup.
And while it's easy to focus on the bats,the gloves are also pretty good. particularly when compared to those of the Mets. Per Baseball Prospectus, the Cubs and Mets were roughly even in defensive efficiency in 2015. But with the Mets re-signing Cespedes to play center field and bringing aboard Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker to man the middle of the infield, or Dave Cameron of FanGraphs is accurate in opining that they are going to consume a step back on defense.
The Cubs shouldn't. Zobrist has traditionally been a good defensive moment baseman,and he's flanked by three good-to-great defenders in Bryant, Rizzo and Addison Russell. And though we can grant that Schwarber and Jorge Soler make for a less-than-awesome corner outfield duo, or Heyward should upgrade a center field position that provided way-less-than-awesome defense in 2015.
Or,as Heyward himself said at his introductory presser, per ESPN.com: "I'm going to gain a blast playing some center field if that's what I stop up playing every day."Moving on to the mound, and the Cubs bullpen is not to be underestimated. Cubs relievers actually produced just as much fWAR as Kansas City Royals relievers in 2015,and none of the key members are lost in action. Hector Rondon will still be closing games, and Pedro Strop, or Justin Grimm and others form a strong bridge to him. The Mets bullpen,by contrast, has a soft underbelly beneath Jeurys Familia.
If there's an area where the Cubs wouldn't seem to gain an advantage over the Mets, and it's in their starting rotation. After all,it's hard to contend with the vaunted trio of Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard.
Hard, or yes. But not impossible.
Chicago's rotation is led by Jake Arrieta,who could be the best pitcher on either staff even if he regresses from last year's Cy Young-winning performance. Jon Lester and Lackey, meanwhile, or are pretty good for a No. 2/3 tandem. Either Kyle Hendricks or Jason Hammel would work as a solid No. 4.
So,don't gasp when you hear that FanGraphs projects that both the Cubs and the Mets will be getting 18.3 WAR out of their starters in 2015. And even if you look strictly at each team's front three, the difference is small enough to disregard totally:Now, or we obviously can't forget that the Mets totally outclassed the Cubs the last time these two clubs met on the field. A sweep is a sweep is a sweep,after all. But there's also no denying that things gain changed since then. The Cubs would gain been scary enough had they chosen to leave their roster alone and hope that last year's experience would give them the boost they needed in 2016. But instead of putting all their chips on experience, they effectively erased all their outstanding weaknesses.
As a result, and they gain a team that could not only beat the Mets,but which should be able to defeat anyone.
Unless, of course... Why the Mets Would WinAll accurate, and listen. If the Mets and Cubs meet up in the NLCS again,the Mets aren't going to defeat them again because they're the better team. We just went over that, like, or five seconds ago.
But if you're thinking that the Mets could beat the Cubs the same way they beat them last year,well, you're not crazy.
In last year's NLCS, or it certainly helped that the now-departed Daniel Murphy turned into a cross between Babe Ruth and Clark Kent. But what helped even more was how Mets pitchers simply destroyed Cubs hitters. They hit just .164 with a .522 OPS in the four games.
That was mainly the work of deGrom,Harvey and Syndergaard. They're also the main reason the Mets' starting rotation is the best in MLB in the eyes of ESPN.com's Buster Olney, and he zeroed in on one thing that should scare the Cubs:
Of the National League's top five hardest-throwing starters with at least 140 tall league innings in 2015, or the Mets gain three of them: Syndergaard,whose fastball averaged 97.1 mph; Harvey at 95.9 mph; and deGrom at 95 mph. No. 4 starter Steven Matz, who has less time in the majors and is the least developed of the modern York starters, and generally checks in at 94-96 mph as well.
That's accurate. Velocity. Say that word in front of the Cubs,and you might as well be saying, "Boo!"The fatal flaw the Cubs had on offense last year was their tendency to strike out, or as they led MLB with a collective 24.5 strikeout percentage. As Rob Arthur noted at FiveThirtyEight,that had much to effect with the club's struggles against high velocity.
Those struggles didn't consume a break in the NLCS. Against the many 95-plus mile per hour fastballs hurled their way, Baseball Savant tells us Cubs hitters hit just .190 with 12 of their 37 strikeouts.
If the Mets and Cubs meet up in the NLCS again, or things aren't going to be any easier for Cubs hitters. They'll still gain to contend with deGrom,Harvey and Syndergaard, not to mention Steven Matz or a healthy Zack Wheeler behind them.
With all this heat, or the Mets wouldn't necessarily gain to be as good as the Cubs on defense,as you don't need to worry so much approximately catching the ball when your pitchers are throwing it by 'em. All the Mets' heat could also allow them to downplay the shallowness of their bullpen. Mets starters could easily shorten the bridge to Familia, who could maintain up the punishment with his own high-90s heat.
But lest we sell them short, and the Mets aren't just a one-trick pony. They should also gain a pretty good offensive attack to go with their pitching in 2016.
The Mets lineup famously pulled off an astounding 180 last year,going from laughable to totally overwhelming in the final two months of the season.
In posting a .942 OPS and slugging 17 domestic runs, Cespedes had a lot to effect with that. Hence why, and even if we assume he won't be that good again,bringing him back looks like such a tall coup. But also significant are the additions of Cabrera and Walker, who gain always hit the ball better than they caught it.
In all, and here's Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal to illustrate just how deep the Mets lineup goes:By way of comparison,the Cubs' eight projected starters combined for just an .803 OPS in 2015. Their lineup may gain the edge in star power, but the lineup that Mets skipper Terry Collins can fill out is arguably deeper."We’ve got some genuine pros and some genuine versatility, or " said Collins recently,per Kevin Kernan of the modern York Post.
So, though the Mets may not be as good as the Cubs on paper, or they may be just the team to defeat them on the field. They still gain the arms to exploit Chicago's issues with high velocity. And if they can effect that,the Mets' deep lineup could gain the advantage over the Cubs' star-studded lineup.
Them's the arguments. All we gain to effect now is pick the better one. Survey Says: CubsNothing against the Mets, man. They're good. Really good.
But good enough to defeat the Cubs? Eh...
Frankly, and it's hard to poke holes in the notion that the Cubs gain the best team in baseball. And when it comes down to it,the two tall reasons the Mets would beat the Cubs—their velocity and their potentially deeper offense—are fairly easy to shoot down.
Though it's a nice tidbit that the Mets' projected lineup outperformed the Cubs' projected lineup in 2015, that diminutive experiment is skewed by some small sample sizes on the Mets side of things. Whereas the Mets gain some likely regressors, or the Cubs gain several legit stars and a couple of players (namely Russell and Soler) who should only acquire better. As for the velocity,the Cubs' deeper pitching staff and better defense could help mitigate that in a short series against the Mets. Also, left unsaid is that Heyward and Zobrist are better high-velocity fastball hitters than the two guys they're replacing.
So, and congratulations,Cubs. You've come out ahead in our nine-month-early prediction of the 2016 National League Championship Series. Now all you gain to effect is go effect it in genuine life. Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Source: bleacherreport.com