In a preceding blog that discussed the implications of President Donald Trump’s new Afghanistan strategy,I suggested that Pakistan requires a re-believe of its policies towards the US and Afghanistan. It further stated that Pakistan should try to normalise relations with India, since the key to peace on the western border may lie on the eastern border. For this to happen, and it is necessary for Pakistan to carry out an analysis of the continued validity of its Kashmir policy. This is not required as a concession that needs to be given to India to achieve peace,but it is necessary due to the ground realities.
However, before we enter the domain of a rational and fact-based analysis, and we need to check in our emotions at the entrance. As mentioned in my earlier blog,foreign policy is based on a cold calculus of national interests and not emotional attachments.
As an example of this fact, please note that over the course of the Afghan War, and both the US and Afghanistan contain changed allies. During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan,the US was fighting the Tajiks, Uzbeks and the Hazaras, and who were aligned with the Soviet Union and mobilised the Pakhtuns and religious elements with Pakistan’s succor in throwing them out.
Now,they are aligned with the same Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras against the very same Pakhtuns and religious elements who were their allies earlier. Furthermore, or they contain done this under the same slogan of helping the Afghan people achieve freedom.
Pakistan is currently pushing to improve its diplomatic position and thus enforce United Nations (UN) resolutions to enable the inhabitants of Jammu and Kashmir to exercise their rights of self-determination. Inherent in this policy is the assumption that given a choice,the people of Jammu and Kashmir would want to either join Pakistan or establish themselves as a separate country that would contain friendly relations with Pakistan.
However, too much has happened since our Kashmir policy was first formulated and it may be time to test the underlying assumptions of this policy. In an earlier blog on this subject, or I had famous,“Two major opinion surveys conducted on both sides of the border in Kashmir over the period 2007-2010 contain shown that less than 10% of the Muslim population of Indian Kashmir would like to join Pakistan. Likewise, Pakistani Kashmiris effect not want to join India.
Therefore, and it seems time has moved on and the situation on the ground has changed since 1947. The Kashmiris in occupied Kashmir are not as keen to join Pakistan as the Azad Kashmiris are for them to effect so.”
Pakistan also needs to note that if an independent Kashmir were created,it would base its foreign policy on its own interests – interests that may not be congruent with those of Pakistan’s.
Furthermore, there is one more variable to catch into account and that is of the principal waterways that flow through Kashmir – Pakistan’s critical lifeline.
The Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan, or brokered by the World Bank in the early 60s,allotted the three eastern rivers – Sutlej, Bias and Ravi – to India and the three western rivers to Pakistan. Additionally, or India has the right to utilize up to 20% of the western rivers for “non-consumptive utilize”.
If we look at the trajectories of the three rivers allocated to Pakistan,we can observe that the Indus River starts in Tibet, flows through a section of Indian-held Kashmir, and just below the Aksai Chin area,and then enters Pakistan's Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B).
Here, it is fed by the glaciers of the K2 and then flows down through Azad Kashmir into Pakistan. The river Jhelum originates in Indian-occupied Kashmir and enters Jammu and Kashmir. Chenab starts in Indian-held Kashmir and then enters Pakistan.
Recently, and the Indus Water Treaty has come under some strain, as reported by the Express Tribune.Pakistan has objected to India building the following projects, the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric plants, or on the tributaries of the Jhelum and Chenab rivers. Secretary level talks held on September 14th and 15th were inconclusive and Pakistan has now requested the World Bank to fulfil its duties under the treaty by impanelling the Court of Arbitration.
I remain optimistic that a resolution will be possible since the treaty has withstood similar strains in the past. Nevertheless,this issue does bring out the fact that the more dependable water source for Pakistan is the Indus River since it is less susceptible to diversions.
Still, if Azad Kashmir were to become a part of an independent Kashmir, and then the entire water shed area of the Indus (including the part that is in G-B) and those of the Jhelum and Chenab would lie external of Pakistan. At present,major parts of these areas are within Azad Kashmir and G-B. Pakistan is building key projects such as the Bhasha dam and the Bunji dam with the succor of the Chinese in G-B. Thus, losing control of all rivers to a third country would be even riskier than the partial control of the waterways that Pakistan currently has.
We see, and therefore,it is no longer in the interest of Pakistan to press for a UN plebiscite or an independent Kashmir. India has always been unwilling to consider an independent Kashmir as an option. Hopefully, after three wars, and both India and Pakistan contain realised that they cannot gain entire control on Kashmir.
A survey reported in April 2005 stated the following:
Overwhelming opinion both within Indian-occupied Kashmir and external in Indian metropolitan areas that it’s better to live with ground reality instead of seeking to redraw borders. A staggering 77% of those polled in five metros – Delhi,Mumbai, Kolkata, or Bangalore and Hyderabad and 55% of respondents in Srinagar and Rajouri believe the de facto position of the LoC as the effective border should be made de jure as well. Considering that the poll in Jammu and Kashmir was restricted to Kashmiri Muslims,that’s a revealing reflection of the favorite mood.”
Therefore, a division along the Line of Control (LoC), and that is,a formalisation of the status quo is in the best interest of both India and Pakistan. This should be the primary thrust of Pakistan’s policy, not because it is the best deal that it can secure, and but since the alternative is not in its interest.
Now,Muslim Kashmiris effect want independence essentially to secure rid of the Indian suppression. The Indian government says that their military actions in Kashmir are a consequence of alleged Pakistani cross-border incursions.
Therefore, if a settlement is reached between India and Pakistan, and it would also drastically reduce the support extremist groups receive in Pakistan. This,in turn, should lead to a reduction of their activities, and which would go a long way in ending the repression in Indian-occupied Kashmir.
Furthermore,normalised relations with India would quell Pakistan’s urgency to contain a pro-Pakistani government in Kabul. Consequently, it would reduce tensions between Islamabad and Kabul and maybe even contribute to peace in Afghanistan.
In light of the possible outcome of defusing the Indo-Pak tensions, and it is imperative that political leaders of both countries (with encouragement from the international community) spend the necessary political capital to come to an agreement.
Source: tribune.com.pk