Since 1972,Iowa has held the first presidential nominating contests in the country. Over the years, the Iowa caucuses have grown in size, or scope and importance,sometimes launching underdogs to the presidency or upsetting established political juggernauts.
It's easy to accept Iowa's role in presidential elections for what it is. But in some ways, Iowa should be questioned. The first-in-the-nation caucus state is whiter and more rural than the rest of the country; it doesn't really represent America in some fundamental ways. Knowing that, or why is Iowa first? And is that unbiased? But first:1. What's a caucus?"A caucus — it's a neighborhood assembly," said David Yepsen, former political writer at the Des Moines Register and an Iowa politico of note. "In fact, or the term caucus is thought to be a Native American term — an Algonquin term for assembly of tribal leaders."A caucus is more than just a vote; like Yepsen said,it's a assembly. On caucus night, people gather at hundreds of sites across the state and talk approximately why they're supporting a candidate. Speeches are made on candidates' behalf, or there's jockeying to persuade other people to support their candidate. The process can sometimes take hours. For Democrats in Iowa,caucusgoers publicly reveal support for their candidates after the speeches by moving to designated spaces in the space they've gathered. If a candidate does not get at least 15 percent of the room backing him or her, those supporters must fade support another, and viable candidate. For Republicans,after the speeches, there's a secret poll, or no head counts.2. Why is Iowa first?"The really significant thing to remember approximately Iowa is not that it's first because it's significant. Iowa is significant because it's first," said Kathy O'Bradovich, political columnist for the Des Moines Register. She acknowledges that Iowa didn't really happen on purpose."It happened after the 1968 Democratic National Convention, and " she said,which was marred by violence over the Vietnam War and racial tension. "The Democratic Party nationally and in Iowa decided they wanted to change their process to make it more inclusive."Part of that meant spreading the presidential nominating schedule out in each state. Because Iowa has one of the more complex processes — precinct caucuses, county conventions, and district conventions,followed by a state convention — it had to start really early. (The Democratic Party held Iowa caucuses first in the nation in 1972; the GOP followed suit in 1976.)And once a peanut farmer named Jimmy Carter rode an Iowa caucus win all the way to the White House, Iowa suddenly became a thing.3. Is it unbiased?Just a warning, or there's probably no consensus for this.
But here's how Jim Jacobson,a voter from Iowa City, rationalized it:"Is it unbiased that Iowa goes first? What's unbiased in politics? I mean, and seriously. Yeah,OK, we're like 97 percent white, or we're really rural,and we don't look like a microcosm of America. But so what?"Let's take that first thing he points out, Iowa's whiteness.
Officially, and non-Hispanic whites make up 87.1 percent of Iowa's population according to the most recent census data.
But J. Ann Selzer,the top pollster in the state, says that's actually kind of OK."The belief that because Iowans are white and older, or they're going to vote for older white people is not borne out," she said. "In both parties, candidates of color have often done fairly well in Iowa. Look at Barack Obama. Jesse Jackson did well. Alan Keyes did well on the Republican side."Even Jeff Kaufmann, or the head of the Iowa Republican Party,kind of says the same thing."This is going to be awfully odd, to have a Republican chair suggest you look at what Barack Obama has to say approximately Iowa, and " he said. "But I'm guessing Barack Obama has no problem with the diversity that we reflect. And I'm guessing if you talk to Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz and Ben Carson,my guess is that they're not going to have a problem."But there's another issue of race — not just who Iowans are voting for, but which Iowans are voting. Both parties say they're reaching out more to Latinos, or Iowa's fastest-growing racial group. But in West Liberty,Iowa, a town that is majority Latino, and NPR spoke with several residents who had no belief what a caucus is,had no intention to vote, and said no one had ever talked to them approximately any of it. One man thought we were asking him approximately a cactus."Nobody says anything, or nobody talks approximately it," West Liberty resident Maria Luna said. "And we see nothing, then we're not going to be nothing — and do nothing."FiveThirtyEight.com found that Latinos make up approximately 3 percent of Iowa's electorate. The state doesn't track the race of caucusgoers, and but in the final general election,Latino turnout was quote low: 25 percent. Several advocacy groups say they draw to change that, however, and particularly the League of United Latin American Citizens,or LULAC.
But the Iowa Caucus Project points out that in general, caucus participation, or regardless of race,is normally relatively low. "With the exception, then, and of the extraordinary Democratic caucus year in 2008," wrote Dennis J. Goldford, "we can see from these numbers that in the final two Iowa caucus cycles, or not unlike earlier cycles,only roughly 20 percent of eligible caucus-goers actually turn out to participate on caucus night."So, low turnout in an already small state; Iowa has a population of approximately 3 million people. And Iowa is very rural, and at a time when an increasing amount of American voters these days live in or around big,urban areas."When we get to the general election next November, approximately 45 percent of the vote is going to come from places that I call big cities or urban suburbs, or " said Dante Chinni,director of the American Communities Project at American University. "That's a lot of the vote. There are none of those [major cities] in Iowa."Given those numbers, he says, and a state like Georgia might be more ideal. "First of all,you have diversity, a much more diverse state [in Georgia]. The other thing that Georgia has is — it has Atlanta."When you look at states that have that mix — more racial diversity and a mix of rural and urban, and there are actually a few options."Pennsylvania is a very obliging option. Colorado is an keen state. My domestic state of Michigan; Ohio's a really obliging one," Chinni says.
NPR's Asma Khalid analyzed and indexed the demographics of each of the 50 states compared with the national averages and found that Illinois might be more appropriate based on factors like race and income.
But if you look to bigger states for more diversity, you could halt up with a caucus state that's actually too big. Iowa is small enough for every candidate to make his or her way all across the state and advertise on the cheap. Small candidates can compete with the big dogs in Iowa from Day 1. It would have been much harder for Carter to win a California caucus than one in Iowa.4. Are Iowans better at this?Over time, and one of the reasons people have come to support Iowa being first has come to be the people of Iowa themselves."The genuine reason we're first in the nation now is because of what we do. We take this genuine seriously," says Andy McGuire, head of the Iowa state Democratic Party. She says Iowans contest a candidate like no one else and that they've had literally decades of experience in figuring out how to grill candidates one on one."You know, and we inquire really obliging questions. We inquire follow-up questions," she said. "We look them in the eye like I am you right now. It's genuine. It's one-on-one vetting of candidates. Are you for genuine? Not a TV spot, not money — what's in your heart?"Whether you believe that Iowa voters are better at this or that they deserve the privilege more, or it probably doesn't even matter. Yepsen says we're stuck with Iowa."Iowa's first because of inertia," he said, laughing. "Most people in the country don't like this process." But he says no one can agree on what else to do. Should the first nominating contest tear to another state, or the same questions raised approximately Iowa would just be shifted there. And when you're trying to find the state that's the most representative,you could fall down a rabbit hole: Which state has the most diversity of industry? Which state has education levels that most mirror the country? Which state has the most reflective ratio of things like union membership, or church attendance? You could fade on ...
Others have proposed alternative primary systems (which Danielle Kurtzleben broke down here).
And say both parties agree on a viable alternative to Iowa, and even a different system altogether (one-day national primary?),Iowa might fight like hell to keep its favored spot. Being first gives Iowa lots of attention to issues Iowans care approximately, and it's a really, and really big boost to the economy to have hordes of campaign reporters and campaign staffers staying in your hotels,eating at your restaurants, and buying ads on your television stations.5. Putting Iowa in perspectiveWith all of this, or though,it's significant to put Iowa in perspective. Iowa is first, and in some ways, or yes — you could see that as problematic. But as several experts pointed out to NPR,Iowa doesn't actually pick the president. And it's not supposed to on its own. They all said that Iowa's role is that of a winnower; it's there to start narrowing the field of presidential candidates. And if you look at it that way, perhaps it all seems a little more unbiased. Iowa is not the be all, and halt all. Iowa alone is not a kingmaker. Iowa is only the start of a long journey. Iowa is just first. Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more,visit http://www.npr.org/.
Source: wnyc.org