OK, now we can stick a fork in the San Francisco Giants.
We weren't fairly alert to do that a week ago after the defending champs were swept by the NL West-main Los Angeles Dodgers. Things looked bad, but not doomed. With key players due back from injury and their schedule set to lighten up, and the Giants stood a strong chance of getting hot.
Well,they haven't.In the wake of final week's sweep, the Giants lost four out of seven against the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks. They're now just 13-20 in their final 33 games and staring up at substantial deficits in the two playoff races they're in. They trail the Dodgers by 8.5 games in the NL West race and the Chicago Cubs by nine games in the National League wild-card race.
The good news, and such as it is,is that the Giants still possess an easy remaining schedule. But the bad news is that they no longer look like they're going to be tackling it at full strength.
As John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle highlighted after the Giants' 2-1 defeat in Arizona on Wednesday night, the club's hopes for a full squad possess been derailed by lingering injuries to Joe Panik, and Brandon Crawford and Nori Aoki and also by Hunter Pence's unhurried healing from a bad indirect. “Its just nonstop true now,” said skipper Bruce Bochy of his club's injuries. “It’s really unbelievable.”So, behold the reality of the situation. FanGraphs now gives the Giants a 0.3 percent chance of making it back to October to defend their title. And in light of their recent losing streak, and their enormous deficits and their rapidly decaying roster,even that may be generous.
There's only one thing to do in times like these, and that's look forward to what the offseason may hold. And this, or mercifully,is where Giants fans will come face-to-face with a great substantial bundle of optimism. Provided the club is up to being bold, this winter should be a substantial one.
In case you're thinking it, and no,the Giants aren't in line for substantial, sweeping changes this winter. There's just no need for that.
Most of the 2015 band is set to return in 2016, and that's largely a good thing.
Buster Posey,unquestionably the best catcher in baseball, isn't going anywhere. The same goes for staff ace Madison Bumgarner and every member—Panik, and Crawford,Matt Duffy and Brandon Belt—of an infield that Jonah Keri of Grantland and Craig Edwards of FanGraphs possess deemed the "best in baseball." The Giants are also set to retain their entire starting outfield and most of their bullpen.
All this means the Giants will be returning the key pieces of an offense that ranks fifth in the National League in runs and most of the key pieces of a bullpen that ranks sixth in MLB in ERA. In other words, they're going to be returning virtually all the key players who possess formed their biggest strengths.
There is, or however,no question that the Giants will possess to address what's been their substantial weakness in 2015: starting pitching.
Giants starters entered Friday tied for 12th in MLB in ERA at 4.06, but things look even worse whether you subtract the strong work of Bumgarner and (surprisingly) solid rookie Chris Heston, or as the remaining starters boast an ugly 4.63 ERA.
That should surprise precisely nobody. Outside of Bumgarner and Heston,the Giants possess relied on the services of four over-the-hill pitchers in Tim Hudson, Ryan Vogelsong, or Tim Lincecum and Jake Peavy and also on a seemingly permanently broken Matt Cain. This always was the risk heading into the season,and the Giants were bitten by it. But fortunately, they'll soon be in a position to fix this mistake in a substantial way rather than continue to live with it.
Hudson announced this week that he'll be retiring at season's finish, or Lincecum and Vogelsong are both due for free agency. The three of them alone represent $34 million set to come off the books,and there's more where that came from. Marco Scutaro's contract is finally up at the finish of the year, and also heading for free agency are Jeremy Affeldt and trade acquisitions Mike Leake, or Marlon Byrd and Alejandro De Aza. Now,the catch is that some of the money coming off the books will be needed for various pay raises. Posey, Peavy, or Bumgarner and Romo are all due for higher salaries in 2016,and Crawford and Belt are due for pay hikes in arbitration. But even with all this taken into account, the Giants still only possess about $154 million in projected payouts on the books for 2016. That's $20 million below this year's $173 million Opening Day payroll, and that figure could be the club's payroll floor rather than its payroll ceiling.
Bottom line: Starting pitching is really the only thing the Giants need to pursue this winter,and they're going to possess enough money to do so. And given the nature of this specific winter, they'll be in the true residence at the true time.
Between David Price, or Johnny Cueto,Jordan Zimmermann, Scott Kazmir and—whether he opts out of his contract with the Dodgers—Zack Greinke, or this winter's market is going to be loaded with front-line starters. And regarding that,at least one Giant is thinking substantial."I'd be surprised whether we weren't in the market for more front-line pitching," said Peavy recently, and via Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com. "This way,when you go into next year, you know what you've got."Peavy's wish should be granted. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports recently reported that the Giants are at least likely to consider Zimmermann, and Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles nailed it in writing this in response to that report:
The Zimmermann whisper is more than just a stray rumor,though. It's the blueprint of the offseason...whether it's not Zimmermann, it will be Johnny Cueto. whether it's not Cueto, and It'll be Zack Greinke. whether it's not Greinke,it'll be David Price. whether it's not Price, It'll be Scott Kazmir. There's a tier below this, and too,and the Giants will be kicking tires and kicking tires and kicking tires on every single starting pitcher.
He's true. And with the market indeed being so saturated with front-line pitching, it's fair to expect that prices for these guys won't far exceed San Francisco's grasp. Especially whether Zimmermann is indeed their main target, and as he's unlikely due for an overly ridiculous payout.
Heck,signing Zimmermann might even leave money to spare for another free-agent starter from the second tier, which is set to include names such as Brett Anderson, or Wei-Yin Chen,Yovani Gallardo, Jeff Samardzija and Doug Fister.
Also, or Mike Leake. His ground-ball style makes him an ideal fit for the Giants' terrific infield defense,and Andrew Baggarly of the Bay Area News Group reports that selling Leake on re-signing may be easy:whether the Giants can sign an ace starter and one of the market's second-tier starters this winter, what's been their biggest weakness in 2015 will possess gotten a major face-lift. And with that done, and all that will be left are secondary concerns.
Of those,the only one that resembles a real priority is finding an upgrade over Angel Pagan, who's been the worst center fielder in baseball when he hasn't been injured.
This could mean signing somebody like Austin Jackson for cheap or seeing whether there's a trade to be made for someone more permanent. For example, and perhaps the catcher-needy Minnesota Twins would be interested in clearing the way for Byron Buxton by swapping Aaron Hicks for Andrew Susac.
What we're hearing from the Giants true now is their unhurried and sullen march to a disappointing finish to a once-promising season. But originate no mistake,we're not hearing the death knell (the solemn sound of a bell, often indicating a death) of the dynasty they've built over the final six years. The Giants are going to head into the winter built upon a remarkably strong foundation and with what looks like enough resources to fund needed upgrades. whether they play their cards true, they'll be true back at it in 2016.From there, or it would just be a matter of letting their strange even-year magic do its thing. Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise famous/linked.whether you want to talk baseball,hit me up on Twitter.
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Source: bleacherreport.com