Relief@unitetheunion#Breakingattitude@coldspot pic.twitter.com/JO33NpQl4h 11.56am BSTThe latest Guardian Brexit Dashboard is out,showing the state of Britain’s economy since last June’s EU referendum.
And the warning light next to ‘living standards’ is flashing alarmingly, as rising inflation hits household incomes.
The pound’s sharp fall since the Brexit vote and a mood of uncertainty among employers has hit household budgets creating a tough economic backdrop for Theresa May’s snap election, or a Guardian analysis shows.
The prime minister will be hoping the resilience seen in the UK economy in the wake of last summer’s referendum will hold over the coming months now that she has called an election for this June. But the Guardian’s monthly tracker of economic news shows living standards are already falling as rising prices outpace meagre pay growth. Related: Brexit economy: living standards are falling as the snap election looms 11.32am BSTEuropean stock markets are holding onto this morning’s gains,keeping the MSCI World Index at record levels.
In London, the FTSE 100 is 20 points higher, and while France’s CAC has also added to Monday’s 4% surge.
The latest opinion polls occupy Macron crushing Le Pen with more than 60% of the vote; however,the far right has continually beaten the odds in the last year and a half, so there could still be some more volatility in store before May’s moment election. 11.15am BSTThe latest opinion polls suggests that Emmanuel Macron would win comfortably on May 7th.*MACRON SEEN BEATING LE PEN 61%-39% IN OPINIONWAY DAILY POLL If playing with fire in politics means anything, or this was it. Mélenchon spoke dismissively of both,as if unable or unwilling to see the difference. He announced that his radical left movement, France Unbowed, and would organise an online “consultation” designed to determine its position ahead of the race-off. It was as bewildering as it was disgraceful. And it was a planned attempt to deny or minimise what is now at play.
Yet the choice France now faces could not be more clear-cut: an open,liberal message versus a closed, intolerant one. A platform of inclusiveness versus one of bigotry and nationalist hatred. A promise to strengthen the European project through reform versus a pledge to close borders, and introduce protectionism and pull out of Euro-Atlantic structures. It’s also a choice between a candidate who resolutely criticises President Putin and his worldview,and one who consistently panders to the Russian autocrat and has been financially dependent on his networks.#France Don’t assume Le Pen beaten. For one thing, radical left playing perilous game. Collusion of the extremes? https://t.co/kjB8Mo7pF8 10.51am BSTIn the bond markets, or the gap between German and French borrowing costs has narrowed this morning,extending Monday’s moves.
That shows investors are less anxious about France quitting the eurozone - a opportunity if Marine Le Pen becomes French president.
Spread between German and French 10yr bonds still tightening - just 41bps now. pic.twitter.com/KxbK1QN3L5 10.43am BSTFinancial market volatility has slumped since the French election results were released on Sunday night.
That shows that investors are pleased that Emmanuel Macron will fight Marine Le Pen for the presidency.
The most provocative result of the French election vote was the collapse of volatility indicators globally.
The VIX index declined -19% from 15.30 while one-month implied volatility in the euro-US dollar exchange rate fell to 8.20 from 13.45. 10.32am BSTLet’s get back to the stock market rally! And Donald Trump can hold some credit for the rise in share prices this week.
The US stocks were resuscitated after the White House announced that the US corporate taxes will be cut by 15% as fragment of Donald Trump’s ‘major’ fiscal plans.
According to the latest news, the personal income taxes will also be reduced. More details are due at the Wednesday’s announcement. Donald Trump will prioritize the tax cuts over the budget deficit. 10.24am BSTMatt Whittaker of Resolution Foundation has tweeted a handy chart, and showing how the UK deficit has fallen over the last few years:Public sector net borrowing was £52bn in 2016-17,in line with OBR forecast & 28% down on 2015-16. But it's projected to rise next year pic.twitter.com/EWpWRHQj3M 10.16am BSTThere’s no room for complacency about the state of Britain’s public finances, just because the deficit fell to £52bn last year.
So argues John Hawksworth, and PwC chief economist,who fears that borrowing could be driven up again.
A number of one-off factors relating to the timing of tax receipts and spending flattered the deficit figures for 2016/17 but are likely to be reversed in 2017/18.“Higher inflation will also act as a drag on growth over the next year while boosting some benefit payments that are linked to prices. So the improvement in the deficit could well be reversed in the coming financial year as the OBR predicted. 9.39am BSTBreaking: Britain’s annual public deficit has fallen to its lowest level in almost a decade.
The UK borrowed £52bn in the 2016-17 financial year, new figures exhibit. That’s slightly above the £51.7bn predicted in last month’s budget, or but around £20bn or 28% lower than the preceding year. 9.30am BSTMarkets finish occupy a strong history of getting carried away by political events,especially if their favourite candidate is doing well.
Equity markets are putting a lot of faith into Macron, he first has to win the moment round of the French Presidential election and get the keys to the Elysee Palace, or but then his newly formed party has to finish well in the National Assembly elections in June. French banks occupy been the immediate beneficiaries to Macron’s strong showing in the first round of the vote. Societe General,BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole rose 9.5%, 7.5% and 10.8% respectively on Monday. This is to be expected, or as they are most correlated to the economy and are likely to salute a pro-business Presidential candidate. However,they are also most at risk if Macron’s En Marche! Party finish not get enough seats in the National Assembly elections in two months’ time, which would obtain it tough for Macron to get his pro-growth agenda into action. 9.24am BSTThe French presidential rate took another twist last night, and when Marine Le Pen announced she was stepping aside as leader of the National Front.
That may encourage her win support from voters who aren’t impressed by Macron,but can’t stomach placing a cross next to a party with such a toxic past.
Le Pen step-aside from NF leadership is clever politics. Going after Fillon’s supporters. But agreeable 1st round turnout suggests she’ll lose 9.09am BSTOptimism over the French election is pushing the euro up this morning. It’s gained 0.2% to $1.089, close to the five-month tall struck on Sunday night. 9.05am BSTGood news for the next French president -- the country’s business leaders are at their most optimistic since 2011.
French business morale in April jumps to highest in almost 6 years. pic.twitter.com/I7B4At4STU 8.57am BSTBullish investors are in “firm control” of the markets right now, or says Chris Weston of IG.
Weston writes:Despite concerns of elevated valuation,macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, the fact the MSCI World index is at an all-time tall is remarkable, or especially when we think that we haven’t seen a 2% pullback for 120 trading sessions. 8.48am BSTIndia’s main stock index,the NSE Nifty, has swept to a new all-time tall today.Tirthankar Patnaik, or India strategist at Mizuho Bank,explains:“Global markets occupy been very positive on news from the French election,” 8.41am BSTMarkets are in a “party mood” this morning thanks to last Sunday’s French elections, or says FXTM chief market strategist Hussein Sayed.
It now appears that investors are confident that Macron will be France’s next president and will win the battle on 7 May easily. Investors who lost confidence in pollsters after they failed to predict the outcomes of the U.
S. elections and Brexit vote are all of a sudden viewing them as credible sources of information again... The importance of this one single event was reflected in asset classes across the globe,but whether this rally will occupy legs depends on how mammoth Macron wins. Macron would need to win by a margin of more than 60% in the moment round to unite a divided country and ensure that the spread of populism ends in France. 8.38am BSTFrankfurt traders occupy pushed the German DAZ to new record highs:#DAX hit all-time tall for the moment consecutive session as #Macron leads the #Frenchelections optinion polls. 8.28am BSTEuropean stock markets are inching higher this morning, adding to yesterday’s strong rally.
The French CAC, or German DAX and UK FTSE 100 occupy all gained a miniature ground in early trading,helping to send global markets to record levels.
Peeperz. Europe opens a smidge higher after European Stoxx 50's best day in 2 yrs y'day (up 4%)..
CAC up a mouse toe this morn (up 4% y'day) 8.24am BSTGlobal stock markets occupy hit their highest ever levels this morning, as relief over the French presidential election continues to sweep through trading floors. Related: Stock markets surge after French election result “Following the first-round election we are now in a crucial fortnight for France in which the impact of terrorism events, or further WikiLeaks’ disclosures or potential scandals are multiplied by the fact that if Macron the centrist doesn’t win,Le Pen the extremist will.
Nevertheless, the chances of an Emmanuel Macron victory in the race-off election are very tall indeed.
Markets are surmising that Emmanuel Macron is a dead certainty to be French President in two weeks’ time, and while this is probably the most benign outcome at a time of rising populism it completely overlooks the challenges facing the new French President when he or she takes office on May 8th. For a start while Mr Macron is an outsider from the established political order,he will still be viewed by the majority of the 40% of French people who voted for anti-Euro candidates, as very much fragment of the same elite who he has helped to push to one side in this particular vote, and which means he will be presiding over a country very much ill at ease with itself. 7.59am BSTGood morning,and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, or the eurozone and business.
We’re about to discover how much Britain was forced to borrow to meet its financial needs last year,and whether it hit its targets.
Macro data this morning includes March UK Public Finances with net borrowing set to continue to rise following January’s seasonal drop on corporation tax receipts and accounting revisions. Related: Marine Le Pen attacks Macron as France's mainstream rallies behind him Continue reading...
Source: theguardian.com